Recent Economic Trends Shaping Cognac in 2025

According to the International Monetary Fund’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook, global economic growth remains moderate, with forecasts of 3.2% for 2024 and 2025, but with significant variation by region. While this price isn’t a major acceleration, stability in key economies has supported ongoing demand in luxury categories, including Cognac. The industry has proven resilient, adapting to continued economic and social shifts.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2025 – Executive Summary.

Global Growth: How 2025 Differs from 2024

Global GDP growth was 3.4% in 2022, but the pace has since slowed. According to the IMF’s April 2025 report, projected global GDP growth is 3.2% for 2024 and 2025—however, this masks important regional differences. Advanced Economies (including the U.S. and Europe) are forecast at only 1.4% growth for 2025, while Emerging Markets and Developing Economies are projected at 3.7% . The United States, a core Cognac market, continues to face economic uncertainty, including elevated recession concerns, partly influenced by political developments and ongoing inflation pressures. Despite these headwinds, luxury markets have remained relatively resilient, though growth has moderated.

Cognac Market Update 2025

United States – Cognac’s largest market by volume – showed improving demand in 2024/25 after a soft 2023. Shipments to the NAFTA region (predominantly the U.S.) rose 15.3% in volume in 2024, reaching 70.6 million bottles​. This uptick followed a year of distributors working down excess inventories. However, the value of U.S.-bound exports in euro terms dipped ~1.5%, partly due to a stronger euro and a shift to lower-priced tiers.

Meanwhile, Asia tells a different story. China – the largest Cognac market by value – saw a sharp downturn: 2024 exports to China fell 9.6% in volume and 23.8% in value. A difficult Chinese economic climate combined with Beijing’s new import measures curtailed demand for premium Cognac. Other Asian markets, however, provided bright spots. Southeast Asia and India are emerging as growth engines, buoyed by a rising middle class and young consumers with a taste for premium spirits​. Industry observers note that India, Vietnam, and other ASEAN countries are embracing Cognac in cocktails and as a status spirit, helping offset some of the Chinese weakness. 

Audry VSOP bottle and cognac cocktails

In summary, U.S. demand has stabilized (even growing in volume), China’s market has slumped, and emerging Asia is picking up steam, reflecting a shifting global Cognac landscape. But, it should be emphasized that there is a cloud of uncertainty hovering over the Cognac market due to mostly political headwinds in the U.S. and China, Cognac’s two largest markets.

Inflation & Consumer Spending: 2025 Update

High inflation was a defining issue in 2024, and its effects linger into 2025. In major economies, price levels remain elevated – “stubbornly high inflation continues to pressurise consumer purchasing power” in mature markets like the U.S. and Europe.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2025, Executive Summary

For luxury segments such as Cognac, this means some consumers are becoming more price-conscious. Indeed, after two years of hefty price hikes, consumers have started to adjust. In the U.S., industry data show a clear shift in spending: sales volumes of ultra-premium spirits (bottles priced above $100) dropped nearly 20% since mid-2022 as inflation and economic uncertainty set in. Many shoppers traded down to mid-range “affordable luxuries” – choosing a good VSOP or premium blend that offers indulgence without the top-shelf price tag.

Cognac Market Update 2025: Outlook, Key Growth Drivers & Future Trends

This “dual consumption” trend has consumers alternating between high-end and value options depending on the occasion​. On a positive note, overall consumer spending in 2025 is holding up better than feared. Inflation is gradually cooling, and unemployment remains low in key markets, helping sustain demand for premium spirits. The premiumization trend in alcohol hasn’t vanished; it’s simply become more selective. Affluent Cognac connoisseurs continue to buy XO and collector editions, but casual consumers are more often opting for VS/VSOP or smaller bottle sizes to stay within budget.

In short, inflation tempered the exuberance in luxury spending, leading to a more value-conscious mindset – yet the aspiration for quality remains, ensuring Cognac’s cachet stays intac.

Currency Exchange and Cognac Export Pricing (Euro vs. Dollar)

Since February 2025 the euro has staged a sharp rebound, finishing April at ≈ $1.14 (intraday high $1.138)—its biggest monthly gain in more than two years. By contrast, it started the year near $1.03–1.04. The stronger euro lifts reported export revenue for French houses but makes Cognac costlier in the United States. Q1 earnings show a roughly +2 pp FX boost to sales for LVMH, Rémy Cointreau and Pernod Ricard, yet pricing decisions remain tricky while the currency is volatile. Management guidance and investment planning should therefore be re-benchmarked every month against the latest BNIC shipment bulletins and will need to incorporate the Q2-2025 results due in late July.

Stock Market Connection: Cognac Giants in 2025

The big three Cognac companies – LVMH (owner of Hennessy), Rémy Cointreau (Rémy Martin), and Pernod Ricard (Martell) – have navigated a challenging first half of 2025, with all seeing year-over-year sales declines in their Cognac segments. However, each company’s situation has nuances:

LVMH: Hennessy

LVMH’s Wines & Spirits division was hit by 17% lower Cognac and spirits revenue in Q1 2025​. Hennessy, which dominates this segment, faced “weaker demand in the US and China” according to the company. Champagne and wine sales were almost flat, highlighting that it was Cognac driving the decline. The drop in Hennessy’s sales is directly tied to the U.S. post-pandemic inventory glut and China’s downturn. LVMH noted soft business spending and China’s anti-dumping probe as key factors denting Hennessy’s performance. Despite this, LVMH remains bullish on its luxury portfolio, and management expects Hennessy demand to recover once these temporary headwinds abate.

Rémy Cointreau: Rémy Martin

Rémy Cointreau reported a 17.8% organic sales drop in the first 9 months of FY2024/25, with its Cognac division (primarily Rémy Martin) down nearly 19% organically. The U.S. market was the main drag – Rémy has been navigating a “strong drop” in American sales due to high inventories and consumer normalisation.

At the same time, China’s market softened for Rémy, though its high-end Club cognac and direct-sales channels showed some resilience. One bright spot was Southeast Asia, where Rémy Cointreau saw strong growth in premium liqueurs and spirits, hinting at potential for Cognac as well​. The company has responded with cost controls and is positioning for a rebound; notably, Rémy’s management still “confirmed” its 2024–25 guidance at the lower end and reaffirmed its long-term 2030 strategy, showing confidence beyond this tough year.

Pernod Ricard: Martell

Pernod Ricard – which owns Martell, the oldest of the major Cognac houses – also felt the sting of China’s slump. In the first half of FY2025, Pernod’s sales in China plunged ~25% (year-on-year) amid COVID aftereffects and the import crackdown​. Td his was largely due to Martell’s decline, since Martell is a top Cognac in China. By Q3 FY2025 (Jan–Mar 2025), Pernod’s results showed some stabilization: U.S. sales were up 2% organically (helped by wholesalers stocking up ahead of potential tariffs), but China was still down 22% year-to-date​. Overall, Pernod’s global sales for the 9 months were down 4% organically​.

Cognac Market Update 2025: Outlook, Key Growth Drivers & Future Trends

The company has responded by cutting its full-year outlook slightly and focusing on other growth markets (India, Africa) to compensate. Pernod’s CFO emphasized that while China remains challenging, the U.S. market is “broadly stable”. Martell is also pivoting to innovation – for example, exploring new grape varietals – to ensure long-term growth.

In summary, all major Cognac producers saw a dip in early 2025, chiefly due to the one-two punch of U.S. destocking and China’s import issues. Hennessy’s owner LVMH reported a double-digit Cognac sales drop​, Rémy Martin’s parent flagged an ~18% decline​, and Martell’s owner Pernod Ricard had mid-single-digit revenue declines with a sharp China impact​.

Despite these setbacks, each company has expressed optimism for a recovery in late 2025 or 2026. Time will tell, but one thing is for sure and that is that the market is fragile and volatile right now. The industry will have to navigate this period despite the lingering cloud of uncertainty.

Cognac House Releases & Industry News: 2025 Highlights

2025 is shaping up to be a landmark year for new releases, collaborations, and industry-defining initiatives among cognac producers.

Major New Releases & Collaborations in 2025

Cognac lovers are being treated to a dazzling array of new expressions. Hennessy, Martell, and Rémy Martin have each unveiled exclusive editions celebrating milestone anniversaries, artist partnerships, and advances in aging technology. These launches are not just about taste—they are experiences, often supported by immersive events and digital storytelling.

Business Developments & Eco-Initiatives

On the business front, several houses have announced major investments in production facilities, vineyard sustainability, and global marketing campaigns. Notably, renowned designer Christian Louboutin has made a personal investment in the esteemed Cognac house Ragnaud-Sabourin. This collaboration aims to enhance the brand’s visibility, particularly in prestigious markets like the United States, and to create unique experiences.

Cognac Market Update 2025: Outlook, Key Growth Drivers & Future Trends

Simultaneously, Jean-Luc Pasquet continues to champion organic and sustainable practices within the industry. The Cognac house, certified organic, exemplifies a harmonious balance between family tradition and innovative know-how, reflecting a commitment to environmental stewardship.

These initiatives, alongside major investments in production facilities, vineyard sustainability, and global marketing campaigns by other houses like Rémy Martin and Courvoisier, underscore a collective move towards eco-certification milestones. Innovative practices such as water conservation and biodiversity enhancement are becoming standard, further cementing the industry’s foundation through mergers, strategic partnerships, and increased cooperation between French houses and international distributors.

Trade Developments: Tariffs and BNIC’s Stance

Trade tensions have emerged as a serious concern for the Cognac industry in 2025, affecting its two biggest markets. On one front is China’s tariff action, and on the other is the risk of new U.S. tariffs on French spirits:

  • China’s Anti-Dumping Tariffs: In late 2023, China launched an anti-dumping investigation into European brandy, including Cognac. By October 2024, China imposed temporary tariffs on Cognac (officially framed as “security deposits”), which immediately hit shipments. The result: a steep decline in Cognac exports to China (as noted in Global Growth: How 2025 Differs from 2024). The Far East region’s Cognac export value fell ~24% in 2024​.

    The BNIC (Bureau National Interprofessionnel du Cognac) attributed this “sharp fall” directly to China’s measures and a slower Chinese economy. Cognac producers are concerned that if these tariffs become permanent, it could fundamentally reshape the market, as China accounts for nearly 20% of global Cognac sales by volume and an even higher share by value. The BNIC and French government have been actively negotiating – as of early 2025, talks were underway to resolve the dispute, and industry leaders urged a “rapid political solution” to remove China’s extra taxes.
  • US Tariff Threats: Simultaneously, the specter of U.S. tariffs on French spirits has returned. In 2019–2020, Cognac faced 25% tariffs in a transatlantic trade war (those were suspended in 2021), but new frictions have arisen over unrelated issues (like digital services taxes and metal tariffs). In March 2025, former U.S. President Donald Trump publicly threatened a 200% tariff on European wine, Cognac, and spirit if the EU went ahead with certain planned tariffs on American goods.

    US tariff landscape (30 Apr 2025): Washington’s new tariff regime, in force since 12 April, levies a baseline 10 % import duty and a higher 20 % rate on some EU goods, though beverage alcohol is still exempt. Former President Trump’s 13 March pledge to slap a 200 % tariff on European wine and Cognac remains a live political threat and has already triggered a 7 % wholesaler “pull-forward” in the US during March. BNIC president Florent Morillon says talks are “on track” to avoid new duties but urges vigilance. Scenario planning should model 0 %, 20 % and 200 % duty levels, updated as fresh BNIC monthly data and the companies’ Q2 calls become available.
Cognac Market Update 2025: Outlook, Key Growth Drivers & Future Trends

BNIC’s Stance: The BNIC has taken a clear position against trade barriers. It is urging diplomacy and restraint, seeking to keep Cognac (and all beverage alcohol) out of the crossfire of international disputes. The organization has been working with EU trade officials and even the French President’s office to ensure Cognac is protected. In statements, BNIC emphasizes that both the U.S. and China are “the Cognac industry’s most important export markets” and thus stability in those trade relationships is paramount.

Industry leaders are cautiously optimistic that negotiations will prevent worst-case outcomes. For example, BNIC’s Morillon indicated there were signs of progress with the U.S., saying discussions were on track to avoid new tariffs on Cognac. In summary, 2025 has been tense on the trade front: Chinese import tariffs are already hurting Cognac sales, and U.S. tariffs have been a looming threat, prompting the Cognac industry to band together and lobby for a peaceful resolution. So far, a full-blown trade war has been averted, and the hope is that cooler heads will prevail to keep Cognac flowing freely to its top markets.

Price Trends: VS, VSOP, XO, Ultra-Premium

Average prices for Cognac have continued their upward trajectory in 2025. The VS (Very Special) and VSOP (Very Superior Old Pale) segments remain popular, but the real growth is seen in XO (Extra Old) and ultra-premium categories, which are highly sought after by collectors and connoisseurs. Special releases and anniversary editions are fetching record prices at auction, underscoring cognac’s status as both a luxury good and a sound investment.

Cognac Market Update 2025: Outlook, Key Growth Drivers & Future Trends
  • Premiumization and Price Mix: Over the past several years, Cognac houses aggressively premiumized their offerings. They introduced special cuvées and older blends (XXO, limited editions) and raised prices to position Cognac as an ultra-luxury spirit. “International distillers have for years been concocting niche formulations to justify charging drinkers ever higher prices,” notes a Bloomberg industry piece. This strategy led to $3,000+ bottles of rare Cognac finding a market, and even VSOP and XO labels seeing regular price hikes as demand boomed through 2021–2022.
  • Inflation and Cost Pressures: Part of the price increase story is simply cost-driven. The costs of production have surged – from bottles and packaging to energy and raw materials – due to global inflation. Glass, for example, saw sharp price increases, and oak barrels are pricier. Cognac producers responded by raising prices on their products to maintain margins. In 2022–2023, many VS and VSOP Cognacs in the U.S. went up by $5-10 per bottle, and XO prices by even more, reflecting these higher input costs (as confirmed by industry observers and even consumer anecdotes)​. Thus, by 2025, the average shelf price for each Cognac category is higher than a few years ago.
  • Recent Category Shifts: Notably, 2024 saw a shift in what was selling. With the Chinese market contracting (where high-end Cognacs are popular), sales of top-tier expressions suffered. According to BNIC data, global shipments of XO Cognac plummeted by 26.4% in 2024, while the volume of VSOP (4+ year) Cognac fell 8.6%. In contrast, shipments of younger VS Cognac (aged 2+ years) jumped by 13.7%. This indicates a consumer gravitation toward the more affordable tiers. Some of that is due to the U.S. market normalizing (more VS for casual cocktails), and some due to high-end buyers pulling back (especially in China). As a result, while Cognac prices are up, the effective price mix in 2024/25 skewed lower – more VS bottles in the mix – which actually pulled down the average export price. This is why, as noted, overall export values fell in 2024 despite higher nominal prices.
  • Ultra-Premium Resilience: On the other hand, the ultra-premium category (XO and above), though hit in volume, still commands extremely high prices and has loyal patrons. Master distillers continue to release collector’s editions (often in fancy decanters) at record prices. For those, pricing is less about inflation and more about rarity and branding. For instance, limited-edition Cognacs aged 50+ years, or special collaborations, saw price tags well into four figures and generally sold out among collectors and high-net-worth buyers. Consumers at the very top segment seem less sensitive to price – but 2024 taught Cognac makers that this segment is small and dependent on stable economic conditions.
Dame Jeannes

In essence, VS and VSOP Cognacs have seen moderate price rises in line with inflation and brand repositioning, while XO and luxury Cognacs saw significant price hikes in recent years amid premiumization. However, 2023–2025 brought a reality check: faced with economic pressure, consumers showed a willingness to “trade down” to VS/VSOP, causing a volume shift to cheaper categories. Cognac companies are now treading carefully with pricing. They are balancing the need to cover higher costs with the risk of alienating consumers.

The good news is Cognac’s brand as a luxury product remains strong – a Hennessy XO or Rémy Martin Louis XIII still conveys exclusivity – so producers believe they have some pricing power. We can expect continued gradual price increases across all categories (in line with inflation), but likely no drastic jumps in 2025. Instead, much of the focus is on offering value at each price tier (e.g. special finishes for VSOPs, age statements) to justify the cost to consumers.

Industry Challenges: 2025 Issues & Solutions

The industry faces ongoing challenges, including climate variability, rising production costs, and the need for greater supply chain transparency. However, leading houses are investing heavily in technology and sustainability, using precision agriculture, renewable energy, and blockchain traceability to address these concerns. The regulatory environment in 2025 is more supportive, with streamlined tariffs and strong industry-government collaboration to promote French cognac abroad.

Climate Change Impacts: Cognac’s grape growers are on the front lines of climate change. The region has experienced more frequent extremes – hailstorms, frosts, heatwaves – that threaten the grape yield and quality. Warming temperatures also cause grapes (mainly Ugni Blanc) to ripen earlier with higher sugars and lower acidity, which is problematic for distillation.

Cognac Market Update 2025: Outlook, Key Growth Drivers & Future Trends

The industry has responded with adaptive measures. Harvest dates have shifted earlier into September to capture enough acidity. More fundamentally, Cognac producers, together with the BNIC and French researchers, are experimenting with new grape varieties. They are testing breeds that could better withstand heat and disease while still producing good eau-de-vie.

For example, Rémy Martin has trial plots of the Monbadon grape, which ripens slower than Ugni Blanc, and Martell is working with the INRA to create new hybrid vines that are resilient to warmer climates. These R&D efforts are part of a long-term solution to ensure Cognac’s raw material – the grape – can survive and thrive in changing conditions. It’s a great example of tradition meeting innovation: the goal is to preserve Cognac’s quality and safeguard the environment.

Rising Costs and Production Challenges: As noted in Section Inflation and Cost Pressures, inflation, inflation in materials (glass, cork, barrels) and energy has squeezed distillers. Additionally, the industry must contend with increasing costs of compliance – for instance, France’s environmental regulations require investments in sustainability (reducing pesticides, lowering carbon emissions). The French spirits industry is under substantial pressure from these rising costs.

Cognac Market Update 2025: Outlook, Key Growth Drivers & Future Trends

Many Cognac houses, especially smaller craft producers, feel the pinch on margins. In response, companies are pursuing efficiencies and sustainability together. Technological upgrades such as more efficient distillation equipment (to save energy) and improved logistics for distribution are being adopted. Some distillers have installed biomass boilers or solar panels to cut long-term energy costs. Others are optimizing packaging (lighter bottles) to reduce both cost and carbon footprint. These measures address cost challenges while also meeting consumers’ growing expectation for eco-friendly practices.

Regulatory and Supply Controls: The Cognac industry has a unique regulatory environment, largely guided by the BNIC. One recent development: due to the market slowdown, the BNIC took the rare step of reducing the authorized production yield for the 2024–25 season. In June 2024 they set the yield at 8.64 hectoliters of pure alcohol per hectare, down from 10.5 hl the previous year (and over 14 hl in 2022’s boom).

This dramatic cut is essentially a supply management move to prevent a glut of Cognac that could depress prices or quality. It reflects caution amid geopolitical uncertainties – the BNIC explicitly cited the Chinese tariffs and potential U.S. tariffs as reasons to curb production and “weather the uncertainties” ahead. While some growers were unhappy about producing less, this regulatory action aims to keep the Cognac market balanced.

Another regulatory aspect is environmental certification. In 2023, the BNIC launched a new “Cognac Environmental Certification (CEC)” program to push the entire sector toward greener practices. This includes sustainable vineyard management, reducing chemicals, and protecting biodiversity. Major houses like Hennessy and Courvoisier have also joined initiatives to cut CO₂ emissions and improve bottle recycling. These efforts are part of making Cognac production more sustainable and future-proof.

Cognac Market Update 2025: Outlook, Key Growth Drivers & Future Trends

Sustainability and Tech Solutions: The challenges have spurred innovation. Aside from grape research and greener energy, Cognac makers are embracing digital tools – from vineyard monitoring sensors that optimize spraying (reducing waste) to AI-driven forecasting for inventory and distribution. One interesting solution on the horizon is the use of a “climatic reserve”: in exceptionally good harvest years, excess wine can be distilled and held in reserve to buffer poor years. This was employed after the huge 2023 harvest, ensuring grapes didn’t go to waste and could strengthen stocks for the future.

On the climate front, if new grape varieties prove viable, we may see changes to the appellation rules by the late 2020s to allow their use, which would be a historic adaptation for Cognac. All told, the Cognac industry is actively tackling its challenges. There is a strong collective spirit (the BNIC is quite central in coordinating responses) and a recognition that preserving Cognac’s heritage means embracing change – whether through scientific innovation, sustainable farming, or smart regulation.

Expert Commentary & 2025 Future Outlook

After a rocky start to 2025, what lies ahead for Cognac in the remainder of the year and beyond? Industry experts generally foresee a stabilization rather than a spectacular rebound in the immediate term, but the outlook is cautiously optimistic with several positive indicators:

  • Normalization and Catch-up Growth: The consensus is that 2025 is a “reset” year from which moderate growth will resume. The IWSR notes that U.S. Cognac volumes, which dropped sharply in 2023 (down 17%), are likely to be “relatively flat over the next few years” as the overstocking unwinds. In fact, recent data show U.S. inventories are finally coming into balance and consumer demand is reverting to its more typical, pre-pandemic profile (skewing toward higher-income connoisseurs). This sets the stage for gradual growth to return in late 2025 once the pipeline is clear.

    Likewise in China, while the situation was grim in early 2025, there is hope that by the end of the year the trade dispute will be resolved or at least tempered. If Chinese tariffs are lifted, even partially, we could see a snap-back in orders as distributors rebuild stocks (which were run down drastically – Chinese imports of brandy in Q1 2025 were -77% in value year-on-year due to the crackdown). Most forecasts for Cognac sales in 2025 show a low-single-digit percentage growth globally, assuming no new shocks. For instance, one industry report projects the global Cognac & brandy market will grow from $14.97 billion in 2024 to $15.8 billion in 2025 (about +5%, in value, though much of that is currency and inflation effects.
  • Producer Outlooks: Cognac companies themselves remain optimistic about the medium term. Rémy Cointreau has signaled that it expects a return to organic sales growth in the second half of 2025, riding on improving U.S. trends and easier comparisons in China. They are forecasting FY2025/26 growth and have not wavered from their 2029–30 strategic plan targets, indicating confidence in a rebound. LVMH’s CFO likewise mentioned that Hennessy’s destocking in the U.S. should finish by mid-2025, after which Hennessy can grow in line with consumer demand (which remains healthy at the consumption level, even if shipment data was weak). 

    Pernod Ricard, after trimming its FY25 outlook, still expects “resilient performance” and has noted improving momentum in markets like Travel Retail and Europe that should help Cognac (Martell) later in 2025.

    The BNIC, for its part, struck a hopeful note that after a volatile 2023–24, “the situation [has] begun to stabilise” and shipments were already ticking up in late 2024​. They anticipate greater stability in 2025 now that producers have adjusted supply and governments are addressing trade issues.
  • Emerging Markets and New Opportunities: A key element of the positive outlook is the growth of new markets and segments. Markets like India, Africa, and Latin America are forecast to increase their Cognac imports in 2025 as French producers ramp up marketing there. While these won’t replace the U.S. or China, they add incremental growth. Moreover, innovation in products (like Cognac-based ready-to-drink cocktails, or new mixable Cognacs aimed at younger drinkers) could expand Cognac’s consumer base.

    There’s also a sustained cocktail boom globally – classics like the Sidecar and newer craft cocktails fuel premium Cognac use in bars, a trend expected to continue through 2025. And on the high end, 2025’s second half is set to feature some very exclusive Cognac releases (such as a special edition celebrating the 150th anniversary of a maison), which typically generate buzz and attract high spenders. These factors give experts reason to believe the Cognac category will regain its footing.
  • Overall Market Sentiment: The tone among analysts is “cautious optimism.” No one is forecasting a huge spike in Cognac sales this year, given the still-present risks (inflation, war, geopolitical tensions). However, the worst appears to be over: U.S. inflation is easing, interest rates stabilizing, and China’s reopening (post Zero-Covid) may gradually improve consumer confidence there. A senior analyst summarized that Cognac is entering a period of consolidation, but its long-term fundamentals – a growing global middle class acquiring a taste for luxury spirits, and Cognac’s strong brand equity – remain intact.

    In essence, 2025 is about setting the stage for future growth. By year’s end, if trade disputes are settled, Cognac could even see a late-year holiday season bump. Looking further out, forecasts for 2026–2027 turn more bullish, with global Cognac growth potentially returning to mid-single-digit percentages annually, assuming normal conditions. For now, stakeholders can take comfort that Cognac’s outlook is stable and upbeat: the industry is weathering the storms and preparing for the next phase of expansion, with sustainability, innovation, and new markets leading the way.

Frequently Asked Questions: Cognac Market Update 2025

1. What is driving cognac growth in 2025 compared to 2024?

Continued global economic expansion, consumer premiumization, and strong export demand—especially from the U.S., China, and emerging markets—are powering growth.

2. How are major cognac brands performing in 2025?

LVMH (Hennessy): Q1-25 group sales –3 %, with Wines & Spirits –9 % on weaker US and Chinese demand.

Rémy Cointreau (Rémy Martin): FY-24/25 Q4 sales fell 19 % year-on-year; Cognac remains ~70 % of revenue and is most exposed to tariffs.

Pernod Ricard (Martell): Nine-month FY-25 sales –4 % org.; China –22 % YTD, while US grew +2 % on pre-tariff stocking; travel-retail slid –31 % after China suspended duty-free Cognac.

3. Are cognac prices increasing in 2025?

Yes, prices are rising—especially for XO and ultra-premium expressions—reflecting both growing demand and limited supply of aged stocks.

4. What challenges are affecting the cognac market in 2025?

Key challenges include climate change impacts, supply chain logistics, and adapting to new regulatory and environmental requirements. Leading houses are investing in technology and sustainability to address these.

5. Which markets are showing the most potential for cognac in 2025?

In addition to the U.S. and China, Southeast Asia, India, and parts of Africa are emerging as significant growth regions for premium cognac.

6. What is the status of US tariffs on imported French cognac in 2025?

As of 30 April 2025, no additional US duties apply to Cognac. The sector is, however, caught between (i) the new 20 % EU-specific tariff band already in force and (ii) the threatened 200 % duty from former President Trump. Negotiations between the EU, BNIC and the US Trade Representative continue, and BNIC indicates “cautious optimism” that spirits will stay excluded. Companies should revisit price lists, margin scenarios and shipment pacing once BNIC posts its May/June export snapshots and after Q2 earnings are released.

7. What’s the long-term outlook for the cognac market?

The long-term outlook is positive, with steady growth expected, especially in the premium and ultra-premium segments. Industry innovation and global demand remain strong drivers.

Conclusion: Key Takeaways from the Cognac Market Update 2025

The cognac market update for 2025 paints a picture of strength, resilience, and opportunity. With global economic conditions improving, major houses innovating, and consumer interest at an all-time high, cognac is set for a successful and exciting year. Whether you’re an industry professional, investor, or enthusiast, 2025 is shaping up to be a year of continued growth and inspiration for this legendary French spirit.

For any strategic decision in H2 2025—whether on pricing, inventory or market allocation—integrate the latest BNIC monthly export figures and the Q2-2025 earnings releases (due late July) to capture real-time shifts in US de-stocking, Chinese demand once the July 5 anti-dumping deadline passes, and the profit impact of the euro’s appreciation.

Sources

The above analysis is supported by data and reports from industry and financial publications: IMF and World Economic Forum updates on GDP ​reuters.comweforum.org; BNIC export statistics via Reuters and Just Drinks ​reuters.comjust-drinks.com; market insights from IWSR and GourmetPro on consumer trends ​theiwsr.comgourmetpro.co; company financial disclosures and news (LVMH, Rémy Cointreau, Pernod Ricard) ​vino-joy.combusinesswire.comjust-drinks.com; Reuters coverage of trade tensions and BNIC statement S ​reuters.comreuters.com; and expert commentary on climate and sustainability from The Guardian and BNIC releases ​theguardian.comcognac.fr. Each claim has been verified with these sources to ensure accuracy and provide the most current perspective on Cognac in 2025.

Disclaimer:

Editorial deadline: 30 April 2025, 09:00 CET. All figures and market references reflect information available up to that time.

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Virginia has been managing the blog content team across the different blogs as well as the print Magazine. Originally from the Alsace region, she discovered Cognac to be a divers spirit with a lot of insights to explore.

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